Evidence of meeting #130 for Government Operations and Estimates in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was subcommittee.

A video is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Yves Giroux  Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Chris Matier  Senior Advisor, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Jill Giswold  Senior Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

12:10 p.m.

Senior Advisor, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Chris Matier

Thank you for the question.

When we first undertook this analysis, we were bringing together two streams of our work. One was done estimating the economic impact of carbon pricing. We had several reports over 2018 through 2021. At the same time, we were also undertaking distributional analysis of carbon pricing that didn't include the economic impacts. One stream was showing that there would be a negative impact on the economy, jobs and employment. The other stream was showing that the majority of households would receive more financially than they would pay.

We had several questions from parliamentarians and the media: How do you reconcile these two streams of analysis? That was the original motivation for bringing them together in our March 2022 report.

I would just add that we were not trying to undertake a cost-benefit analysis. Our office really stays away from that line of inquiry. It's not because it's not important; it's just that it's outside of the scope that we view as our mandate. We really don't want to appear as being partisan by only looking at certain benefits or only certain costs, nor do we want to be perceived as the arbiter of whether this policy should or should not be implemented. We really try to restrict the scope to that financial cost lens.

We've been very clear in our reports that we are not taking into account the benefits of reducing emissions or the costs of not reducing emissions.

Thank you.

12:10 p.m.

NDP

Matthew Green NDP Hamilton Centre, ON

[Technical difficulty—Editor] on one hand and on the other. Okay. We'll take it.

12:10 p.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley

As they say, there are no solutions in politics, only trade-offs.

Mr. Hallan, go ahead, please.

June 17th, 2024 / 12:10 p.m.

Conservative

Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB

My question is just a clarification.

Today's date, when we have all of your analysis done and this secret data that the government was hiding, a $25-billion impact on the economy.... It was because of the Conservatives' pressure that they finally released that it was a $25-billion hit to the Canadian economy, and workers at the end of the day.

I just want to get one clear answer. Given all the data and all the secret information that has been finally released, your final conclusion, according to you, still stands. Your final conclusion was that, given all the fiscal and economic impacts of the carbon tax scam, a majority of Canadian households are worse off. Can I just get you to confirm that one more time?

12:10 p.m.

Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Yves Giroux

The fuel charge and the output-based pricing system, when both are included, yes, that still stands, but—

12:10 p.m.

Conservative

Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB

Perfect.

12:10 p.m.

Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Yves Giroux

That's it.

12:10 p.m.

Conservative

Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB

Thank you very much.

There's another portion to this that the Liberals and the NDP refuse to talk about. That's the clean fuel regulations, better known as “carbon tax two”. We know that this will cost, on average, about $573 more.

When we look at that $25 billion in this secret data that the government refused to release, was that carbon tax two factored in when that $25-billion impact on the economy was released to you?

12:10 p.m.

Senior Advisor, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Chris Matier

Thank you for the question.

The estimates we received from Environment and Climate Change Canada reflected only the impact of carbon pricing in Canada. They did not include the economic impact of the clean fuel regulations. That—

12:15 p.m.

Conservative

Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB

Just following up on that, does that mean that it would only make things more expensive for Canadians, on top of your analysis?

12:15 p.m.

Senior Advisor, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Chris Matier

We prepared a report in May 2023, I think, using the estimates that Environment and Climate Change Canada had provided us in terms of the economic impact of the clean fuel regulations—

12:15 p.m.

Conservative

Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB

Can you give a clear answer? I have a limited amount of time. The carbon tax two, or clean fuel standard, will only make it more expensive. Is that correct?

12:15 p.m.

Senior Advisor, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Chris Matier

According to the estimates we received, they indicated a negative economic impact and a negative impact on households' incomes.

12:15 p.m.

Conservative

Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB

Okay, so it would make Canadians poorer.

There is no rebate on this carbon tax two. Is that correct?

12:15 p.m.

Senior Advisor, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Chris Matier

Yes, that is correct.

12:15 p.m.

Conservative

Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB

What we can conclude is that, when you factor in carbon tax scams one and two, the overall analysis is that a majority of households in Canada will be worse off. Is that correct?

12:15 p.m.

Senior Advisor, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Chris Matier

Unfortunately, we haven't prepared that analysis. We've only looked at the separate impacts of carbon pricing and the clean fuel regulations but have not combined those—

12:15 p.m.

Conservative

Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB

Fair enough, but if the conclusion for carbon tax one is that a majority of Canadians will be worse off, does that not mean, if there's a negative impact with carbon tax two, that it would lean towards a negative impact overall? Would that be correct?

12:15 p.m.

Senior Advisor, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Chris Matier

It's likely correct. However, the precise impact—

12:15 p.m.

Conservative

Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB

Okay, and this applies to every province. Is that correct? Carbon tax two without a rebate...?

12:15 p.m.

Senior Advisor, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Chris Matier

The clean fuel regulations...? That's correct.

12:15 p.m.

Conservative

Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB

Including Quebec and B.C...?

12:15 p.m.

Senior Advisor, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Chris Matier

Yes. I believe there can be some interactions with the provincial regulatory standards as well, so it may not be—

12:15 p.m.

Conservative

Jasraj Singh Hallan Conservative Calgary Forest Lawn, AB

But the overall impact would be negative? Can I just get a clear answer on that?

12:15 p.m.

Senior Advisor, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Chris Matier

I'm sorry. I don't.... I believe in our report we showed what the—