National Defence committee  As a member of the international order based on rules and international standards, Canada faces threats from Russia and China. Russia has military capabilities in the Arctic and could decide to move from its current defence posture to offence. China is in the midst of exploring options and conducting tests in the Arctic, and we know it has military ambitions for the region.

National Defence committee  Thank you. As the chief of the defence staff mentioned, Russia sees North America as a single target.

National Defence committee  Thank you, Mr. Chair. I would definitely agree that if Russia and China were to co-operate in the Arctic, it would pose significant threats to Canada's ability to protect its sovereignty. I would also reinforce what General Eyre said, which is that there is a growing imbalance in the relationship between Russia and China because of Russia's failures.

National Defence committee  Thank you, Mr. Chair. I would say that they are both revisionist authoritarian regimes that are seeking to reshape the rules-based international order to fit their world view. They are predictable in that we can listen to what Vladimir Putin said prior to the invasion of Ukraine and we can listen to what President Xi said just in the last few days about taking Taiwan by whatever means necessary.

Public Safety committee  Thank you. Russia is certainly able to launch cyber-attacks and target critical structures in Canada. It's also important to remember that Russia views North America as a target. It doesn't distinguish between the United States and Canada. On the specific topic of cyber-attacks, our expert here is the chief of CSE.

Public Safety committee  Mr. Chair, I would absolutely agree with the director of the CIA that Russia has the capability. What the Five Eyes alliance and our NATO allies are laser-focused on is whether the intent exists. In terms of the question regarding indicators, this is obviously something the Five Eyes alliance is laser-focused on.

Public Safety committee  Mr. Chair, we closely track all aspects of the conflict with Russia, and we have since the days before the invasion, when Vladimir Putin was blatantly lying that it was only a military exercise. We have been trying to ascertain both his intentions and also the strength of the Russian state and the support for him.

National Defence committee  Mr. Chair, I'm not sure of the exact ways in which the International Criminal Court or any other organization would receive such imagery, but there is a significant amount of commercially available satellite imagery over Ukraine that could likely be used for a case such as that.

National Defence committee  Thank you, Mr. Chair. I think I'll start with the last portion, how that changes things. Modern warfare has changed in that we are seeing things—and perhaps it began with the Gulf War in 1991—and events transpire in real time. Certainly I think that is good, because we are seeing the lies that were perpetrated by the Russians and President Putin being called out as lies and the fact that they are still not telling the truth through Russian media to their own citizens.

National Defence committee  Mr. Chair, one thing I can tell you is that the intelligence community, specifically the Five Eyes, but also NATO and all other intelligence communities with like-minded nations, are looking very closely at the resources we have. It's challenging in that we have no resources on the ground, but through a combination of geospatial intelligence, signals intelligence and all the other disciplines of closely tracking any illegal “contrary to law” of armed conflict activities that may be undertaken by Russian forces....

National Defence committee  Mr. Chair, I would say that prior to a week ago we were very concerned about China, in fact, wondering if China would take the opportunity to accelerate their own plans for greater control of their “near abroad”, specifically Taiwan. I would hope that with the reaction of the international community, specifically NATO and the west, that China would have given pause to any of their authoritarian plans in the future.

National Defence committee  I could be available, yes, Mr. Chair.

National Defence committee  Mr. Chair, perhaps I could take the first part of that question regarding how we've been tracking the situation in Ukraine over the past several months, because that really highlights the importance of the relationships with our allies, particularly the Five Eyes. It was about the middle of October that we in the Five Eyes started to receive reporting of the extremely large buildup of Russian forces surrounding Ukraine.

National Defence committee  I would say that the top two threats are the two threats I mentioned during my presentation—Russia and China. Both have aggressive foreign intelligence services. Also, although it is not strictly the Canadian Forces national counter-intelligence unit that is responsible, we are also dealing with issues around ideologically motivated violent extremism within the Canadian Armed Forces.

National Defence committee  Mr. Chair, and members of Parliament, thank you very much for the invitation this afternoon to speak on global threats from the defence intelligence perspective. Prior to addressing the topic, I'd like to briefly describe my dual role as commander of Canadian Forces Intelligence Command, or CFINTCOM, and as chief of defence intelligence.